iDecide 2000

From Decisive Tools:

Easy to use Decision/Risk Analysis program. Build graphical representations of your decision called influence diagrams. Drag and Drop nodes to connect them - saying that this nodes value influences this other nodes value. Nodes can represent known values or uncertain values that are described using statistical representation - the rate of inflation will be between 3% and 7% with the most likely value of 4.5%. Can also use formulas to calculate values. Once your decision is modeled you run a Monte Carlo simulatio. Monte Carlo is a technique that generates random numbers that are statistically significant given the ranges and distribution selected by the user. Generating a value for every uncertain value in your influence diagram represents one possible future. After running thousands of possible futures the program can do statiscal analysis on which is the most likely, etc. Program includes lots of charts and graphs to help interpet the results. Also includes on-line help, manuals, tutorials and sample models. Finally, you can get values for nodes directly from Excel. You can also put results directly into an existing Excel spreadsheet.