The underlying principal in time series analysis is that any set of data is the summation of smaller cycles or component cycles. The Expert Cycle System program provides the serious investment trader with a viable forecasting tool in extracting the multiple parameters for the individual component cycles from the data set. The futures or FOREX trader begins by loading and displaying any CommTools compatible quote data file. He then enters the parameters for a maximum of ten cycles Weight (amplitude), Period (wavelength), and Shift (phase). The individual cycles are then plotted in the second chart region (see above). The summation or composite cycle is plotted directly beneath the component cycles. To determine how closely the trader-selected cycles match the actual time series, the bottom chart area displays the 'residual difference', which is the original bar chart data minus the composite cycle for each day. The coefficient of correlation will also be displayed.
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